Twins roster projection 1.0: Where they stand, what they need as offseason begins -

MLB’s offseason is three weeks old and the Minnesota Twins, like most other teams, have yet to make moves other than a few housekeeping items — 40-man roster adds and removals, tendering contracts to arbitration-eligible players and making a qualifying offer to Sonny Gray that he predictably rejected.

With the hot stove season just getting started, The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman and Dan Hayes take a look at how the Twins’ roster currently is constructed and forecast what may come in the weeks and months ahead.

Catchers (2)

In: Ryan Jeffers, Christian Vázquez

Others on the 40-man roster: Jair Camargo

Gleeman: This one seems pretty straightforward. If the Twins were to trade Vázquez — a cost-cutting possibility I wrote about earlier this week — then Camargo could take over as Jeffers’ backup. If they hold onto Vázquez, then it’ll likely be a similar time-share to last season, but with Jeffers perhaps receiving a larger slice of the pie, and Camargo would be stashed at Triple-A St. Paul as the No. 3 catcher.

I’m of the belief Camargo is ready for a backup job. He’s a quality defender with a strong arm, and he’s shown 20-homer power in back-to-back years. But the Twins have consistently talked up the value of catching depth, and how they want to keep everyone fresh with split workloads. If not for plans to lower payroll, I think they’d keep Vázquez, but a $10 million backup is just such an obvious place to cut money.

Another factor: How much of the two years and $20 million left on Vázquez’s deal would the Twins have to eat just to move him? Trading him may not even save that much money, in which case there’s really no reason to do it.

🚨JAIR CAMARGO WALK OFF GRAND SLAM🚨 pic.twitter.com/g84FSD7Pzr

— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) June 28, 2023

Hayes: Give Jeffers credit for completely rearranging how we view this equation. At TwinsFest last January, he suggested his play would improve and playing time wouldn’t be divided up as everyone expected it to be after Vázquez was brought in on a three-year, $30-million deal.

Jeffers expected to handle the bulk of the duties. Then he backed it up by improving how he slowed down opponents on the bases and by delivering clutch hits all season.

I agree trading Vázquez could be considered. But I don’t think the Twins want to deal him now when his value is low. Rather, I suspect if they were to try and make a move, it’d come at midseason. Vázquez still possesses value and knows how to handle a staff.

The Athletic’s Houston Astros reporter Chandler Rome said players and coaches in his team’s clubhouse were shocked the Twins didn’t start Vázquez once in the playoff series and had major concerns about how it would impact that night’s game had he been behind the dish. His veteran knowledge shouldn’t be discarded because of a poor offensive season.

If we were projecting a roster for the end of 2024, I might think differently. For now, I’ll go with the status quo.

Infielders (6)

In: Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Kyle Farmer

Others on the 40-man roster: Jose Miranda, Yunior Severino

Hayes: Since the GM meetings, almost everyone I’ve spoken with is under the assumption Polanco will be moved. He’s affordable and has some — not great, but solid – trade value at a time when the free-agent class at second base is weak. But history teaches us that the moves we expect to happen are the ones that almost never occur.

What might be more interesting here is how the Twins would handle the scenario if they didn’t trade Polanco. Still, I expect he’ll be traded.

Julien’s continued ascent gives the Twins a few too many infielders, especially with Austin Martin seemingly in the mix to play in center field, presumably with some time also accrued at second base. Brooks Lee is close to ready, though it wouldn’t surprise me to see him get more seasoning before he arrives.

But given their self-imposed budget, it only makes sense the Twins would offload Polanco and Farmer and use that $16 million elsewhere. With Kirilloff and Miranda both ending their seasons injured, it’d be interesting to see the Twins divert some of those funds toward first base. Would they do that? Hard to say how they’re going to slice the pie.

Gleeman: There are a lot of moving parts here. I’d expect Farmer to be traded at some point this offseason and, like you just said and like I wrote this week, trading Polanco would make sense with Julien as a replacement in waiting. And whatever the Opening Day infield looks like, Lee’s likely midseason arrival will shake things up again. This is very much a work in progress.

Lewis and Correa are set on the left side. That much I’m sure about. Kirilloff, if healthy after shoulder surgery, figures to be the primary first baseman, but I could also see the Twins bringing in some competition there or possibly giving Miranda (also if healthy) a chance to fight for the job. And second base will be Polanco or Julien, with the DH spot providing a fallback plan if both are kept.

Having a bunch of good infielders, and needing to sort through several high-upside prospects, is a really nice problem to have, but it does require some hard decisions. I think we’re going to see some of those come to a head this winter, and continue in the regular season with Lee’s eventual call-up.

Outfielders (5)

In: Matt Wallner, Willi Castro, Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, Nick Gordon

Others on the 40-man roster: Austin Martin, Trevor Larnach, Emmanuel Rodriguez

Gleeman: Look, another area of the roster in flux!

Everyone would love Buxton to be the Opening Day center fielder, but there’s just no way that can be assumed at this point. Castro could fill the job, but I’m not sure the Twins see him as a starting option there defensively even though he’s the most logical option on the roster right now. Gordon is sort of the same story — he could keep the position warm, but isn’t a long-term solution.

Martin profiles well in center field defensively and is pretty close to major league-ready after a strong final two months for St. Paul, so it’s possible the Twins could simply hand him the Opening Day gig and use the limited payroll room elsewhere. Re-signing Michael A. Taylor or signing a similar veteran placeholder can work, but given the self-imposed payroll limits, is that worth the money versus Martin?

I’d expect Wallner to be the starting left fielder, or right fielder if Kepler is traded. And if he’s traded, have Larnach or Gordon done enough to warrant being handed a job? Probably not. I’ve felt trading Kepler made sense in past offseasons, but the motivation to trade him now should be less than with Farmer, Polanco or Vázquez given how the infield and catching depth compares to the corner outfield depth.

Nope. Not a replay. Superman at it again with his third diving catch of the night. @austin_martin99 hitting .345 with a 1.097 OPS in August coming into tonight. He's 2-4 with a double, stolen base, and two runs scored and three highlight reel plays. pic.twitter.com/WkbVD6nRpm

— St. Paul Saints (@StPaulSaints) August 26, 2023

Hayes: Buxton has five more seasons left on his contract and a no-trade clause. The Twins hope this latest surgery gets him to a place where Buxton is in center and formidable. There’s a very good player in there that the Twins and Buxton need to figure out how to unlock for the long term.

But in the short term, the Twins need to determine a viable backup plan. Taylor’s presence alone last season was critical, not to mention his outstanding defense and a bat that produced a career-high 21 homers. Taylor on a comparable salary to last year’s $4.5 million is a good option. The more budget-conscious route — and an intriguing one for the added on-base skills — would be giving Martin the chance, though he’s had injury concerns of his own.

Starting pitchers (5)

In: Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, Louie Varland

Others on the 40-man roster: Simeon Woods Richardson, Brent Headrick

Hayes: This is the area where the Twins are likeliest to spend their money in order to bolster the rotation. But it seems very unlikely Gray would be where they allocate those dollars. The Twins like to limit how much risk they take. I personally love Gray’s inner competitor and think he’s worthy of the gamble. But I can understand, with his past injury history, why the Twins would allow another team to absorb the risk on a 34-year-old and figure out either a younger or more affordable alternative — at least to start the season.

The Twins think very highly of Paddack, enough that they understood another surgery was possible and were willing to go through the process with him when they traded Taylor Rogers for him and Emilio Págan. If things go the way the Twins suspect, that trade is going to age very well for the front office.

The Twins signed Paddack to a three-year extension ahead of last season and have him under contract for two more years, a decision that looks very good after September and October. The Twins are hopeful Paddack’s performance is a preview of what’s to come. For his career, Paddack is striking out a batter per inning while walking only 1.8 per nine innings. He should be able to provide quality innings behind López. The real question is how many innings the Twins can count on from Paddack coming off his second Tommy John.

With that question hanging over them, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Twins add one starter via trade or free agency and likely sign a veteran to a minor-league deal with an invite to camp.

Chris Paddack's 2Ks in the 6th. pic.twitter.com/tquDnER5qJ

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 12, 2023

Gleeman: Varland is certainly MLB-ready, but we’ve seen how much the Twins emphasize stockpiling rotation depth, to the point that Ober (and Varland) began last season in the minors. My assumption is they’ll add at least one veteran starter to push Varland out of the Opening Day rotation, not because they distrust him, but because they know they need more than five good starters to get through a season.

There are also workload-related questions with both Paddack and Ober, so simply having five quality starters to fill the rotation in late November doesn’t mean a ton. There are ways to save money throughout this roster, by shedding costly veterans and/or trusting minimum-salaried youngsters, but the rotation is probably the last place the Twins would want to take that riskier approach.

I suspect they’d love to trade Polanco or Kepler — and maybe both — for a Gray replacement, with the idea that Paddack will essentially be replacing Kenta Maeda. I’m not sure it’s realistic without top prospects added, but one way or another they have relied on the trade market to fill the top of past rotations with swaps for Gray, López, Maeda, Ryan, Tyler Mahle and Jake Odorizzi.

Relief pitchers (8)

In: Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Alcalá, Kody Funderburk, Josh Winder, Cole Sands

Others on the 40-man roster: Matt Canterino, Jordan Balazovic

Gleeman: I’d say the first four bullpen spots are locked in. Tendering a contract to Alcalá also suggests the Twins see him as part of the 2024 plan, if healthy. And the opportunity is definitely there for Funderburk to grab a full-time spot as the second left-hander. After that, you could basically convince me anything will happen with the final two spots. We’ll use Winder and Sands as the placeholders for now.

Canterino is a dark-horse candidate because the Twins still really like his upside and high-end raw stuff, but he’s coming back from Tommy John surgery and has thrown a grand total of just 85 innings since being drafted in 2019. Realistically, the Twins are likely to cycle through arms in the final two to three spots, and will bring in the usual assortment of minor-league signings to compete for those roles.

And, as mentioned above, if they’re able to bring in at least one dependable veteran starter, Varland would be available for late-inning bullpen work, either immediately or in the second half. My most confident bullpen prediction is that the Twins won’t spend meaningful money here, leaning instead on reliever prospects, young starters moonlighting as relievers and scrap-heap pickups.

Hayes: The sense I got from the Twins is that Canterino would return as a starting pitcher in the minors next season, at least to begin. Teams like to use the TJ rehab period as a window to refine arm path and perhaps they’ll take that route to work on what previously was described as “herky-jerky mechanics.” But if starting doesn’t pan out, Canterino could be a nasty option in the bullpen.

Along with their rotation, the Twins are starting from a strong point with their bullpen. The way Duran and Jax performed in October should give the Twins a ton of confidence. Despite their relative inexperience pitching in big-pressure spots, the two thrived in the playoffs, as did Stewart. Duran, Jax and Stewart is a very nice trio to build around and pair with a veteran lefty like Thielbar.

If Alcalá can get back on the track he was on in 2021, it would be a big development for the 2024 team. Clearly, the Twins thrived late in the season because they possessed a lot of big bullpen arms.

Someone will need to step in and assume the rubber-arm role held by Pagán the past two seasons. He was second on the team behind Jax in appearances last season. Pagán pitched a team-high 68 1/ 3 innings (he technically pitched one additional inning as a starter) last season, a figure that ranked 27th among relievers in the majors. If the Twins want to maintain this bullpen success, they need to continue taking care of their relievers.

(Top photo of Christian Vázquez: Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)

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