DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the Sony Open |

Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.

The PGA TOUR stays in Hawaii this week, albeit on a different island. The Sony Open is held at the Waialae Country Club, which is in Honolulu. This will be the first full-field event of the year and the first with a cut. We didn’t get as much primetime golf as I was hoping for last week, with the event rolling out threesomes off the front and back tees, but we should get to watch some golf in primetime this week. I already have about four inches of snow at my house, and there’s nothing but snow in the forecast for the next few days, so watching some warm weather golf on television sounds amazing.

Waialae is a much different golf course than the one last week. For starters, it’s a par 70 that measures just over 7,000 yards. Rather than having 80-yard wide fairways that are extremely sloped, this course features tree-lined fairways that are quite flat. The course has several doglegs, and most holes have overhanging tree limbs, which really negates distance off the tee. Even though the fairways are fairly generous in width, they are tough to hit on average. The field hit just above 54% of fairways at this event last year. While playing from the short grass is always a benefit, we’ve seen winners with low driving accuracy rates here in the past.

Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for the Sony Open

I’m not focusing too much of my attention on off-the-tee metrics. This is a course where plodders have had a lot of success over the years. And by plodders, I am talking about golfers that are good with wedges, good with short irons, good around the green, and good putters. We usually see around 70% of approach shots hit from 125-200 yards at this event. The greens are fairly easy to hit in regulation, but around the green play has still been important over the years. The greens are average in size and feature bermudagrass if you want to look at putting splits this week.

While this course is generally on the easier side compared to the TOUR average, that all depends on the weather. It sounds like there have been some major storms in the area early this week, and the early forecast is calling for significant wind on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. If that holds, I think it will only benefit the accurate players and short-game specialists. For comps this week, I am looking at strokes gained on bermuda courses, strokes gained on short par-70 courses, and strokes gained at both Harbour Town and Colonial Country Club. If you are interested in these metrics, you can download my model or watch the field breakdown video. The link is just above.

PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the Sony Open

Field Size:

144 golfers

Cut Rule:

Top 65 and ties

Weather Forecasts

Golf Courses

Waialae Country Club
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Par 70 — 7,044 yards
Difficulty: 2023 (34th), 2022 (41st), 2021 (45th), 2020 (9th), 2019 (32nd)
Fairway width in landing areas: 36.6 yards wide on average
Green size: 7,100 square feet
Green type: bermudagrass
Water is in play on 5 holes
2023 stats: driving accuracy (55%), driving distance (293 yards), greens in reg (72%)

Event Notes

Second week in a row in Hawaii, but the courses are very different
Waialae is a short par 70, while Kapalua was a long par 73
This is a very flat course with much smaller greens than last week
Fairways here are generous yet still tough to hit each year
Driving accuracy hasn’t been all that important though
High greens in regulation rate here, even from the rough
Scoring on this course all depends on the wind
Only two par 5s on the course, 70% of approach shots from 125-200 yards
Comp courses: Harbour Town and Colonial Country Club

What to Look For

Strokes gained approach
Strokes gained putting (emphasis on bermuda)
Strokes gained around the green
Bogey avoidance
Total driving

Core Plays

Russell Henley

DraftKings —$9,600/ pOWN:17.2%
FanDuel —$11,600/ pOWN:17.1%
Total Driving —54
SG: APP —7
Bogey Avoidance —7
SG: ATG —13
SG: Putting (Bermuda) —83
Stat Rank —7
Noto Rating —85.8

Henley didn’t play very well last week at The Sentry, but we shouldn’t be concerned. He now gets to play a course that fits his strengths much better, and hopefully, he was able to knock some rust off his game. In this field, he’s top 10 in Strokes Gained: Approach, proximity from 125-200 yards, and bogey avoidance. He’s won this event in the past and finished in a tie for 2nd here in 2021. He grades out as the 3rd-best play in my model, yet he’s the 8th-most expensive on DraftKings and 4th-most expensive on FanDuel. He is a safe play with the upside to potentially win this event.

J.T. Poston

DraftKings —$9,100/ pOWN:20.9%
FanDuel —$10,400/ pOWN:18.1%
Total Driving —106
SG: APP —27
Bogey Avoidance —21
SG: ATG —40
SG: Putting (Bermuda) —36
Stat Rank —4
Noto Rating —84.8

Poston is one of my favorite players on the PGA TOUR. A large part of that has to do with the fact that he tends to play well when I expect him to play well. I would appreciate it if the rest of the field would follow his lead. He’s always been known as a short-game specialist, but he has quietly turned into a very good ball striker. Over the last 6 months, he’s top 5 in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach and in birdie or better percentage. He has top-10 finishes in 6 of his last 10 starts, including The Sentry last week. His course history here is mixed, but he finished T21 here last year, and I would argue that he’s a better golfer now than he has been at any point in his career.

Andrew Putnam

DraftKings —$7,500/ pOWN:15.5%
FanDuel —$9,400/ pOWN:13.9%
Total Driving —80
SG: APP —18
Bogey Avoidance —23
SG: ATG —72
SG: Putting (Bermuda) —6
Stat Rank —20
Noto Rating —74.2

You know it’s one of my favorite weeks when I can play my favorites in Poston, Putnam, and Todd. There’s nothing that stands out from a T40 finish at The Sentry last week until you look at the round-by-round numbers. He was 15-under par on the weekend, including a 9-under par round on Sunday. Hopefully, he can carry some of that momentum into this event, where he has had plenty of success over the years. He’s finished T4 or better in 2 of his last 5 appearances here. His strengths fit the course well, as he’s accurate off the tee, a good iron/wedge player, and an elite putter.

Conviction Plays

Eric Cole

DraftKings —$9,700/ pOWN:19.0%
FanDuel —$10,700/ pOWN:15.9%
Total Driving —120
SG: APP —6
Bogey Avoidance —6
SG: ATG —12
SG: Putting (Bermuda) —11
Stat Rank —6
Noto Rating —83.8

Cole has been in good form for what feels like an entire year. Despite never playing at Kapalua, he finished in a tie for 14th last week. He’s not very good off the tee, but everything else is close to elite. In this field, he’s 11th or better in Strokes Gained: Approach, bogey avoidance, birdie or better percentage, Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, and Strokes Gained: Putting. Given the fact that this course neutralizes distance, it should fit him very well. And even better, this is the second time that he has seen the course, as he made the cut here last year. He’s a much better golfer now and seems poised to get that first win on TOUR.

Cameron Davis

DraftKings —$8,500/ pOWN:13.1%
FanDuel —$10,600/ pOWN:8.9%
Total Driving —59
SG: APP —52
Bogey Avoidance —55
SG: ATG —43
SG: Putting (Bermuda) —39
Stat Rank —9
Noto Rating —83.0

Remember when I said I thought Davis was good chalk last week? It turns out I was wrong. He’s now more expensive and playing in a larger field, so not nearly as many people will be willing to go back to the well. I love the low ownership, especially since this might actually be a better course fit for him. While he’s long off the tee, he has always played his best on shorter courses. He is one of the best in the field at the comp courses (Harbour Town and Colonial CC), and we know he can rack up birdies with the best of them. he’s played here each of the last 4 years and has finished no worse than T32. It’s a good bounce-back spot at low ownership.

Denny McCarthy

DraftKings —$8,400/ pOWN:12.5%
FanDuel —$10,100/ pOWN:9.1%
Total Driving —89
SG: APP —64
Bogey Avoidance —24
SG: ATG —18
SG: Putting (Bermuda) —18
Stat Rank —23
Noto Rating —76.2

McCarthy is typically the chalk play on these short par-70 courses. His strengths are driving accuracy and short game. The approach play can be hit or miss, but he has the potential to gain strokes every week. I’m surprised his ownership projection is this low, and I plan to be way overweight on the field. He posted two top-10 finishes during the swing season and is 2-for-2 at this event in his career. I like the mix of safety and upside that he provides.

Brendon Todd

DraftKings —$7,900/ pOWN:14.1%
FanDuel —$9,800/ pOWN:11.9%
Total Driving —69
SG: APP —55
Bogey Avoidance —9
SG: ATG —2
SG: Putting (Bermuda) —3
Stat Rank —3
Noto Rating —80.9

Todd flew a little too close to the sun last week. He was in the lead at one point in the second round but ultimately fell back on the weekend. Have no fear. This is a much better course fit for his skill set. He’s one of the most accurate drivers of the ball on TOUR and one of the best putters on TOUR. Over the last 8 months, he has really figured something out with his approach play. He has gained at least 2 strokes on approach in 7 of his last 11 starts. If we get one of those spike weeks with the irons, he has the putting to potentially contend. He’s made each of his last 4 cuts at this event.

Ben Griffin

DraftKings —$7,400/ pOWN:8.9%
FanDuel —$9,200/ pOWN:6.2%
Total Driving —104
SG: APP —77
Bogey Avoidance —64
SG: ATG —17
SG: Putting (Bermuda) —10
Stat Rank —29
Noto Rating —69.4

All factors considered, Griffin might be my favorite play of the week. I don’t understand why he’s coming in with a low ownership projection, but I’m certainly not complaining. The last time we saw him, he finished in a tie for 4th at the RSM Classic. The last time he played in this event, he finished in a tie for 12th. He’s not a great driver of the ball, but he’s a good iron player, he’s solid around the greens, and he’s one of the best putters in the field. At sub-10% ownership, sign me up.

PGA Betting Card

Last week: -0.5 units

Season total: -0.5 units

This week: 12 units in play

Sony Open

Eric Cole +3000 (FanDuel)
JT Poston +3300 (FanDuel)
Byeong-Hun An +3500 (Caesars)
Cameron Davis +5000 (BetMGM)
Andrew Putnam +5000 (FanDuel)

Eric Cole top 10 +360 (FanDuel)
JT Poston top 10 +400 (FanDuel)
Byeong-Hun An top 10 +400 (FanDuel)
Cameron Davis top 10 +500 (bet365)
Andrew Putnam top 10 +550 (FanDuel)
Brendon Todd top 20 +200 (FanDuel)
Ben Griffin top 20 +350 (Caesars)

Note: When it comes to units, betting on golf is a bit different than betting on other sports. For instance, what I bet on an outright in golf is smaller than what I would bet on an NBA or MLB game. However, to keep it simple for tracking purposes, each golf bet posted will be for one unit unless stated otherwise.

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